College of Forestry

Rising wildfire risk in the Pacific Northwest combined with notoriously volatile timber pricing may lower forestland values by as much as 50% and persuade plantation owners to harvest trees much earlier than planned, a new analysis of Douglas-fir forests shows. “Basically, under high wildfire risk that rises with stand age, every year you wait to harvest you’re rolling the dice,” said Mindy Crandall, an associate professor in the OSU College of Forestry. Earlier harvesting reduces both long-term timber revenue and carbon storage potential, as well as impacting wood quality, adds study co-author Andres Susaeta.

A satellite imagery analysis shows that the 2021 “heat dome” scorched almost 5% of the forested area in western Oregon and western Washington, turning foliage in canopies from a healthy green to red or orange, sometimes within a matter of hours. “The extent of foliar mortality shown in this study, particularly in iconic, old-growth forests, suggests that longer-lasting or hotter heat waves in the future could lead to even more widespread impacts on invaluable Pacific Northwest forests,” said OSU College of Forestry doctoral graduate Adam Sibley.

2024 was the hottest year on record and likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years, according to an annual report issued by an international coalition led by Oregon State University scientists. “Without effective strategies, we will rapidly encounter escalating risks that threaten to overwhelm systems of peace, governance, and public and ecosystem health,” said co-lead author William Ripple. “In short, we’ll be on the fast track to climate-driven chaos, a dangerous trajectory for humanity.”